War in Syria: Can Assad Hold on to Homs?

If the rebels capture the Homs area, it is all over for Assad. His Alawite coastal heartland and all the ports will be cut off from the capital Damascus. Iran would lose access to all but two border crossings into Lebanon. These are mountain passes that Israel can, and routinely does, control via airstrikes. Moscow also has a lot at stake. The naval base in Tartus secures access to the Mediterranean, and the Hmeimim air base makes it possible to be operational in the entire region.